Small increases in stream drying can dramatically reduce ecosystem connectivity

Habitat fragmentation drives biodiversity loss in rivers around the world. Although effects of anthropogenic barriers on river connectivity are well known, there has been little research ways which stream drying may alter connections among habitats and resources. Given that is increasing many regions, a pressing need to understand habitat fragmentation. Here, we quantify spatiotemporal patterns under current future climate scenarios Upper Blue River Basin, Oklahoma. We used hydrologic model simulate daily streamflow for nine scenarios. For each scenario, calculated metrics temporal continuity (dry days, dry periods, period duration) spatial (wetted length, number fragments, length dendritic index) from simulated streamflow. found likely increase all increases reduce connectivity. However, were highly nonlinear. Specifically, observed threshold small led rapid drop also greatest not associated with highest emission scenarios, underscoring complex linkages climate, water availability, essential ecosystem structure function, discuss management strategies informed by impacts drying.